Dirk Draws 16 Fouls

A year ago in this post, I proposed a new metric for the box score: number of fouls drawn by a player. The idea was to look at the ratio of fouls drawn to fouls committed - an efficiency metric similar to the assist to turnover ratio, but used to measure the effectiveness of a player’s intensity. In the opening game of the Western Conference Finals, Dirk Nowitzki was unstoppable. He had 48 points, 6 boards, and 4 blocks - aggressive on both the offensive and defensive end. What is not clear from Nowitzki’s stats is that he drew 16 fouls from 7 different players (nearly 60% of the 27 fouls by the Thunder were committed on Dirk). Serge Ibaka was supposed to be the player with the best chance to slow down Nowitzki, but he committed 5 fouls throughout the game, all on Dirk, and had no impact on Dirk's performance. Nowitzki’s ability to draw fouls on multiple players caused the Thunder to adjust their defensive rotation as players were forced to sit on the bench due to foul trouble. Dirk aggressively called for the ball and took advantage of his opportunities at the free throw line, converting on all 24 attempts - an NBA Playoff record. Meanwhile, he only committed 3 fouls in his 41 minutes of play. The number of fouls drawn should be a metric used to help value a player as it indicates the pressure he places on the opposing team's defense. 

Barea exposes Lakers defense, or lack thereof

The Lakers have always had difficulty with quick, penetrating point guards, turning unfamiliar bench players into household names: Aaron Brooks of the Rockets in 2009, Goran Drajic of the Suns in 2010, and most recently in the second round of the 2011 NBA Playoffs, Jose Juan Barea of the Mavericks.

Undrafted in the 2006 NBA draft, 6-0, 175 pound Barea signed with the Mavericks after playing in the NBA Summer Vegas League. While his impact on the game was apparent through the box score (22 points, 8 assists in game four), it was his ability to get under the skin of the Lakers and to disrupt them on the defensive end that proved even more valuable.Throughout the series, and particularly in game four, Barea was able to weave through the defense and easily penetrate to the basket. He made five of his nine field goals in the paint compared to Lakers big men Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum who combined for only three field goals inside. He caused miscommunication on the pick-and-roll and frustrated players - both Ron Artest and Bynum were ejected for flagrant fouls on Barea. 

It will be interesting to see what happens with the Lakers roster this offseason considering Magic Johnson’s recent comments that Dr. Jerry Buss should “blow up” the team if they are swept by the Mavericks. While it is unknown what will happen to the team, one thing is clear: the Lakers have consistently been outplayed by quick point guards and need to find an answer.

House Brings One Home for the Heat

Headed into today’s Heat - Thunder match-up, in games decided by 5 or fewer points, the Heat were 2-8 while the Thunder were 9-5. In overtime games, the Heat were 2-2 and the Thunder were 5-0. These statistics suggest that the Thunder have had significantly more success in close games. 

With 34 seconds to go, Kevin Durant made a 19-foot jumper in front of his home crowd to give the Thunder a 103-102 lead, the team’s first lead in the fourth quarter. The fans erupted and seemed confident the Thunder would survive another close game. The Heat immediately took a time out, bringing in Eddie House – he had only attempted one field goal in the game and did not connect. After a Dwyane Wade miss, House drained a wide open three, giving the Heat a lead they would never relinquish. House had only 5 points, but they all came in the last 22 seconds of the game. When people think of the Heat, they immediately think of Dwyane Wade, LeBron James and Chris Bosh, but House is the guy that came through for his team. He is a proven clutch shooter – in pivotal game 4 of the 2008 NBA Finals, House gave the Celtics their first lead of the game with 4:07 remaining in the fourth quarter after he made an 18-foot jumper. He has played and performed well in crucial games, and while his veteran experience does not translate into big numbers in the box score, his confidence and ability to perform under pressure will continue to be incredibly valuable to the Heat.

Great Call, Mitch

Phil Jackson’s triangle offense typically takes players at least one full season to process. Jackson commented that Ron Artest, in his second season with the Lakers, is starting to understand where he should be on the floor, while Matt Barnes, a first-year Laker, is still not fully on board with the offense. Unlike Artest and Barnes, Steve Blake, in his first season with the Lakers, has a clear grasp of the offense, making his transition to the Lakers seamless. Blake has a high basketball IQ, understands floor spacing, and makes smart basketball decisions. His statistics are far from phenomenal, averaging almost 6 points and 2 assists per game, but he is shooting nearly 50% from three point range - he strategically positions himself to relieve his teammates of double teams, resulting in wide open threes. Blake has the ability to be a high scorer as he is one of the best catch and shoot players in the league, but with the talent surrounding him on the Lakers, he instead works hard on the defensive end, finds the open man, and picks his shots.  It is not easy for a point guard to add value to a back-to-back championship team, but Steve Blake has already made his mark.

Teams Outplay Individuals

Game one of the 2010-2011 NBA Regular Season had the atmosphere of a playoff game – the world witnessed, for the first time, the big three from Boston collide with the new big three from Miami.  Before the season began, many NBA analysts considered the Miami Heat the team to beat in the East. On paper, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh, three NBA all-stars in their prime, seem to be the perfect combination to win a championship. However in reality, they are three individuals who have not yet learned to play together. Though it is clearly too early to consider the Celtics the Eastern Conference favorite, tonight’s game revealed a stark contrast between the two teams. The Celtics are a cohesive unit, an example of a team that is greater than the sum of its parts, while the Heat are exactly as they appear on paper -- a group of players who play one-on-one basketball. If the Heat don’t play as a team, they will have a tough season full of “overrated” chants from the crowd.

The Value of a Proper Screen

Espn.com posted this article about the Boston Celtics addition of Shaquille O’Neal and the impact O'Neal will have on Ray Allen’s game. Here is how a potential play could unfold: Rajon Rondo dribbles the ball at the top of the key while he patiently waits for O’Neal to set a screen on Allen’s defender. Allen runs around the screen, Rondo passes him the ball, and Allen drains the shot. In this scenario, Allen is credited with two points, Rondo with an assist, and O’Neal, arguably the most important part of the sequence, with nothing.

The NBA should consider adding an additional statistic to the box score: screens that lead to points scored. Few players are able to read the defense, time the play, and set a proper screen. By tracking this metric, General Managers will have another data point to help them assess the value of a player to his team. Many question why the Celtics would add O'Neal at this late stage in his career. It's important to remember that while O’Neal no longer has the ability to average a double-double each night, his 7-1, 325 pound body combined with his ability to set effective screens will create easy opportunities for his teammates.

Battle over the 6-11 Big Man

It appears that Erick Dampier will soon make a decision to either join the Houston Rockets or the Miami Heat. Dampier averaged about 6 points, 7 boards and 1 block last season - not exactly the statistics that jump out in the box score. But what Dampier would provide to either the Rockets or the Heat is far more valuable than his numbers.

Yao Ming of the Rockets will be limited to 24 minutes per game throughout the 2010-2011 regular season. Besides Ming, the team has 6-10 Jordan Hill, 6-11 Jared Jeffries and 7-0 Brad Miller, but none of these players are true centers. Even if Dampier is not a rebounding or blocking machine, his 6-11, 265 pound body will serve as a solid backup when Ming needs to rest.

Miami arguably needs Dampier even more than Houston because Miami's biggest weakness is inside. Miami can't afford a large contract so the team can't add another star player. Moreover, for the majority of each game, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh will have possession of the ball. Therefore the Heat should sign a player whose effectiveness is independent of ball possession. Dampier does not demand the ball - he would complement the team by playing solid defense, grabbing offensive boards and plugging the middle.

Even though Dampier does not light up the box score, he does provide a strong defensive presence. Both the Rockets and Heat should be working hard to sign Dampier – they will both benefit from adding a 6-11 body inside.