House Brings One Home for the Heat

Headed into today’s Heat - Thunder match-up, in games decided by 5 or fewer points, the Heat were 2-8 while the Thunder were 9-5. In overtime games, the Heat were 2-2 and the Thunder were 5-0. These statistics suggest that the Thunder have had significantly more success in close games. 

With 34 seconds to go, Kevin Durant made a 19-foot jumper in front of his home crowd to give the Thunder a 103-102 lead, the team’s first lead in the fourth quarter. The fans erupted and seemed confident the Thunder would survive another close game. The Heat immediately took a time out, bringing in Eddie House – he had only attempted one field goal in the game and did not connect. After a Dwyane Wade miss, House drained a wide open three, giving the Heat a lead they would never relinquish. House had only 5 points, but they all came in the last 22 seconds of the game. When people think of the Heat, they immediately think of Dwyane Wade, LeBron James and Chris Bosh, but House is the guy that came through for his team. He is a proven clutch shooter – in pivotal game 4 of the 2008 NBA Finals, House gave the Celtics their first lead of the game with 4:07 remaining in the fourth quarter after he made an 18-foot jumper. He has played and performed well in crucial games, and while his veteran experience does not translate into big numbers in the box score, his confidence and ability to perform under pressure will continue to be incredibly valuable to the Heat.

Great Call, Mitch

Phil Jackson’s triangle offense typically takes players at least one full season to process. Jackson commented that Ron Artest, in his second season with the Lakers, is starting to understand where he should be on the floor, while Matt Barnes, a first-year Laker, is still not fully on board with the offense. Unlike Artest and Barnes, Steve Blake, in his first season with the Lakers, has a clear grasp of the offense, making his transition to the Lakers seamless. Blake has a high basketball IQ, understands floor spacing, and makes smart basketball decisions. His statistics are far from phenomenal, averaging almost 6 points and 2 assists per game, but he is shooting nearly 50% from three point range - he strategically positions himself to relieve his teammates of double teams, resulting in wide open threes. Blake has the ability to be a high scorer as he is one of the best catch and shoot players in the league, but with the talent surrounding him on the Lakers, he instead works hard on the defensive end, finds the open man, and picks his shots.  It is not easy for a point guard to add value to a back-to-back championship team, but Steve Blake has already made his mark.

Teams Outplay Individuals

Game one of the 2010-2011 NBA Regular Season had the atmosphere of a playoff game – the world witnessed, for the first time, the big three from Boston collide with the new big three from Miami.  Before the season began, many NBA analysts considered the Miami Heat the team to beat in the East. On paper, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh, three NBA all-stars in their prime, seem to be the perfect combination to win a championship. However in reality, they are three individuals who have not yet learned to play together. Though it is clearly too early to consider the Celtics the Eastern Conference favorite, tonight’s game revealed a stark contrast between the two teams. The Celtics are a cohesive unit, an example of a team that is greater than the sum of its parts, while the Heat are exactly as they appear on paper -- a group of players who play one-on-one basketball. If the Heat don’t play as a team, they will have a tough season full of “overrated” chants from the crowd.

The Value of a Proper Screen

Espn.com posted this article about the Boston Celtics addition of Shaquille O’Neal and the impact O'Neal will have on Ray Allen’s game. Here is how a potential play could unfold: Rajon Rondo dribbles the ball at the top of the key while he patiently waits for O’Neal to set a screen on Allen’s defender. Allen runs around the screen, Rondo passes him the ball, and Allen drains the shot. In this scenario, Allen is credited with two points, Rondo with an assist, and O’Neal, arguably the most important part of the sequence, with nothing.

The NBA should consider adding an additional statistic to the box score: screens that lead to points scored. Few players are able to read the defense, time the play, and set a proper screen. By tracking this metric, General Managers will have another data point to help them assess the value of a player to his team. Many question why the Celtics would add O'Neal at this late stage in his career. It's important to remember that while O’Neal no longer has the ability to average a double-double each night, his 7-1, 325 pound body combined with his ability to set effective screens will create easy opportunities for his teammates.

Battle over the 6-11 Big Man

It appears that Erick Dampier will soon make a decision to either join the Houston Rockets or the Miami Heat. Dampier averaged about 6 points, 7 boards and 1 block last season - not exactly the statistics that jump out in the box score. But what Dampier would provide to either the Rockets or the Heat is far more valuable than his numbers.

Yao Ming of the Rockets will be limited to 24 minutes per game throughout the 2010-2011 regular season. Besides Ming, the team has 6-10 Jordan Hill, 6-11 Jared Jeffries and 7-0 Brad Miller, but none of these players are true centers. Even if Dampier is not a rebounding or blocking machine, his 6-11, 265 pound body will serve as a solid backup when Ming needs to rest.

Miami arguably needs Dampier even more than Houston because Miami's biggest weakness is inside. Miami can't afford a large contract so the team can't add another star player. Moreover, for the majority of each game, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh will have possession of the ball. Therefore the Heat should sign a player whose effectiveness is independent of ball possession. Dampier does not demand the ball - he would complement the team by playing solid defense, grabbing offensive boards and plugging the middle.

Even though Dampier does not light up the box score, he does provide a strong defensive presence. Both the Rockets and Heat should be working hard to sign Dampier – they will both benefit from adding a 6-11 body inside.

Don't Underestimate the Little Guy

Because there has been limited NBA action since the LeBron fiasco, you are seeing headlines that would normally not make it to the front page of espn.com such as Kwame Brown joining the Bobcats. But you still might have not heard that the Milwaukee Bucks acquired Earl Boykins. On the periphery, it does not seem like this deal should make news. Boykins is the second to shortest player in NBA history at 5-5 and has played on nine teams in his 11 year NBA career. However in reality, Boykins is an asset to any team that he joins, particularly because of the intangibles that he brings: experience, hustle, and an ability to change the momentum of the game.

Boykins will likely backup second year point guard Brandon Jennings. Jennings is undoubtedly an emerging star, but he is a young player that can learn from Boykins. From 2003-2006, Boykins played with the Denver Nuggets in 15 playoff games in which he averaged nearly 13 points, 4 assists, and 1 steal, in under 28 minutes per game. While these numbers are clearly not superstar statistics, for only $1.3M, the Bucks are adding experience to a young team. Boykins is also a crowd favorite, drawing cheers and energy from the fans the moment he steps on the court. He can push the ball, has great court vision and is automatic at the free throw line. With his speed and tiny frame, he can maneuver through the defense and find the open man for an easy bucket. The 133 pound Boykins won’t make the Bucks a championship contender, but he will bring experience and strong work ethic that will push his young teammates to perform each night.

Pacers Win The Prize

The deal between the Pacers, Nets, Hornets and Rockets has one main headline: "Ariza to Hornets in four-team trade." While Ariza might be the biggest name involved, Darren Collison should be lighting up the headlines.

The Indiana Pacers just acquired a point guard that made a measly $1.3M but averaged nearly 19 points and 9 assists in the starting role while Chris Paul was hurt. After Paul was injured, Collison had his first 40+ minute game in which he dished out 18 assists. He started 37 games and is bringing exceptional  experience for a rookie point guard to the Pacers.

Collison also had a notable PER (Player Efficiency Rating) of 16.55 which ranks 16th among the 68 point guards that qualified for a rating - quite impressive for a rookie (the only rookie above him was rookie of the year Tyreke Evans). However, PER does not place enough emphasis on a player's defensive capability and it fails to account for the intangibles of the game such as leadership and hustle. Collison is a natural leader, a true point guard. Becoming an unexpected starter mid season as a rookie behind arguably the best point guard in the league is not an easy task, but Collison seemed to take it on with ease. He hustles for loose balls, plays aggressive defense (a product of a defensive minded UCLA squad), and has a high basketball IQ. Though the Hornets had to make a move in order to ease Paul's woes, it seems they may regret this decision in the future.