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Sunday, November 21, 2010

Great Call, Mitch

Phil Jackson’s triangle offense typically takes players at least one full season to process. Jackson commented that Ron Artest, in his second season with the Lakers, is starting to understand where he should be on the floor, while Matt Barnes, a first-year Laker, is still not fully on board with the offense. Unlike Artest and Barnes, Steve Blake, in his first season with the Lakers, has a clear grasp of the offense, making his transition to the Lakers seamless. Blake has a high basketball IQ, understands floor spacing, and makes smart basketball decisions. His statistics are far from phenomenal, averaging almost 6 points and 2 assists per game, but he is shooting nearly 50% from three point range - he strategically positions himself to relieve his teammates of double teams, resulting in wide open threes. Blake has the ability to be a high scorer as he is one of the best catch and shoot players in the league, but with the talent surrounding him on the Lakers, he instead works hard on the defensive end, finds the open man, and picks his shots.  It is not easy for a point guard to add value to a back-to-back championship team, but Steve Blake has already made his mark.

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Teams Outplay Individuals

Game one of the 2010-2011 NBA Regular Season had the atmosphere of a playoff game – the world witnessed, for the first time, the big three from Boston collide with the new big three from Miami.  Before the season began, many NBA analysts considered the Miami Heat the team to beat in the East. On paper, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh, three NBA all-stars in their prime, seem to be the perfect combination to win a championship. However in reality, they are three individuals who have not yet learned to play together. Though it is clearly too early to consider the Celtics the Eastern Conference favorite, tonight’s game revealed a stark contrast between the two teams. The Celtics are a cohesive unit, an example of a team that is greater than the sum of its parts, while the Heat are exactly as they appear on paper -- a group of players who play one-on-one basketball. If the Heat don’t play as a team, they will have a tough season full of “overrated” chants from the crowd.

Thursday, September 30, 2010

The Value of a Proper Screen

Espn.com posted this article about the Boston Celtics addition of Shaquille O’Neal and the impact O'Neal will have on Ray Allen’s game. Here is how a potential play could unfold: Rajon Rondo dribbles the ball at the top of the key while he patiently waits for O’Neal to set a screen on Allen’s defender. Allen runs around the screen, Rondo passes him the ball, and Allen drains the shot. In this scenario, Allen is credited with two points, Rondo with an assist, and O’Neal, arguably the most important part of the sequence, with nothing.

The NBA should consider adding an additional statistic to the box score: screens that lead to points scored. Few players are able to read the defense, time the play, and set a proper screen. By tracking this metric, General Managers will have another data point to help them assess the value of a player to his team. Many question why the Celtics would add O'Neal at this late stage in his career. It's important to remember that while O’Neal no longer has the ability to average a double-double each night, his 7-1, 325 pound body combined with his ability to set effective screens will create easy opportunities for his teammates.

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Battle over the 6-11 Big Man

It appears that Erick Dampier will soon make a decision to either join the Houston Rockets or the Miami Heat. Dampier averaged about 6 points, 7 boards and 1 block last season - not exactly the statistics that jump out in the box score. But what Dampier would provide to either the Rockets or the Heat is far more valuable than his numbers.

Yao Ming of the Rockets will be limited to 24 minutes per game throughout the 2010-2011 regular season. Besides Ming, the team has 6-10 Jordan Hill, 6-11 Jared Jeffries and 7-0 Brad Miller, but none of these players are true centers. Even if Dampier is not a rebounding or blocking machine, his 6-11, 265 pound body will serve as a solid backup when Ming needs to rest.

Miami arguably needs Dampier even more than Houston because Miami's biggest weakness is inside. Miami can't afford a large contract so the team can't add another star player. Moreover, for the majority of each game, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh will have possession of the ball. Therefore the Heat should sign a player whose effectiveness is independent of ball possession. Dampier does not demand the ball - he would complement the team by playing solid defense, grabbing offensive boards and plugging the middle.

Even though Dampier does not light up the box score, he does provide a strong defensive presence. Both the Rockets and Heat should be working hard to sign Dampier – they will both benefit from adding a 6-11 body inside.

Monday, August 23, 2010

Don't Underestimate the Little Guy

Because there has been limited NBA action since the LeBron fiasco, you are seeing headlines that would normally not make it to the front page of espn.com such as Kwame Brown joining the Bobcats. But you still might have not heard that the Milwaukee Bucks acquired Earl Boykins. On the periphery, it does not seem like this deal should make news. Boykins is the second to shortest player in NBA history at 5-5 and has played on nine teams in his 11 year NBA career. However in reality, Boykins is an asset to any team that he joins, particularly because of the intangibles that he brings: experience, hustle, and an ability to change the momentum of the game.

Boykins will likely backup second year point guard Brandon Jennings. Jennings is undoubtedly an emerging star, but he is a young player that can learn from Boykins. From 2003-2006, Boykins played with the Denver Nuggets in 15 playoff games in which he averaged nearly 13 points, 4 assists, and 1 steal, in under 28 minutes per game. While these numbers are clearly not superstar statistics, for only $1.3M, the Bucks are adding experience to a young team. Boykins is also a crowd favorite, drawing cheers and energy from the fans the moment he steps on the court. He can push the ball, has great court vision and is automatic at the free throw line. With his speed and tiny frame, he can maneuver through the defense and find the open man for an easy bucket. The 133 pound Boykins won’t make the Bucks a championship contender, but he will bring experience and strong work ethic that will push his young teammates to perform each night.

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Pacers Win The Prize

The deal between the Pacers, Nets, Hornets and Rockets has one main headline: "Ariza to Hornets in four-team trade." While Ariza might be the biggest name involved, Darren Collison should be lighting up the headlines.

The Indiana Pacers just acquired a point guard that made a measly $1.3M but averaged nearly 19 points and 9 assists in the starting role while Chris Paul was hurt. After Paul was injured, Collison had his first 40+ minute game in which he dished out 18 assists. He started 37 games and is bringing exceptional  experience for a rookie point guard to the Pacers.

Collison also had a notable PER (Player Efficiency Rating) of 16.55 which ranks 16th among the 68 point guards that qualified for a rating - quite impressive for a rookie (the only rookie above him was rookie of the year Tyreke Evans). However, PER does not place enough emphasis on a player's defensive capability and it fails to account for the intangibles of the game such as leadership and hustle. Collison is a natural leader, a true point guard. Becoming an unexpected starter mid season as a rookie behind arguably the best point guard in the league is not an easy task, but Collison seemed to take it on with ease. He hustles for loose balls, plays aggressive defense (a product of a defensive minded UCLA squad), and has a high basketball IQ. Though the Hornets had to make a move in order to ease Paul's woes, it seems they may regret this decision in the future.

Monday, August 2, 2010

Barnes No Longer Laker Foe

The +/- stat is one of the few metrics in the box score that reflects the impact a player has on his team. This stat is particularly meaningful for bench players or players with limited minutes as it shows if a player helped spark or contribute to a run and effectively change the momentum of the game. Of the top 20 players in the +/- category in the 2009-2010 NBA season, Matt Barnes played the fewest minutes yet ranked ninth on the list. Similar to Bruce Bowen and Nate Robinson, Barnes can get under your skin. However, if given the opportunity, a basketball fan would welcome Barnes to his favorite team's roster.

Barnes does not mind hacking the offensive player in order to send a message that scoring against him will be a challenge. He has been known to make some dirty plays such as throwing elbows or faking an inbounds pass into Kobe Bryant's face. Barnes even got into a public tiff on Twitter with Lamar Odom after the Lakers lost in Orlando this year. Despite the hatred that Barnes stirred among Laker fans and players, they are now happy to have Barnes on the team. Case in point: Barnes pulled some stunts in the past, but because he brings defensive energy and has a positive impact on his team even while playing limited minutes, he has been quickly welcomed by the Laker community. Adding Barnes alongside Artest and Bryant could put the Lakers in a position to have the best defensive backcourt in the league.

Monday, July 26, 2010

Either Love or Hate Nate

When you imagine a player celebrating on the court, you might think of Michael Jordan after crossing over Bryon Russell and hitting the game winner, or Derek Fisher after his miracle .4 shot. Each of these plays sealed a victory in an intense playoff matchup so the reaction was expected. But what about a player that sits on the bench for most of the game and then makes one good play and starts celebrating?

In the 2010 NBA Finals, Celtics backup point guard Nate Robinson did just that. He averaged 10 minutes per game and the second that he forced a turnover or delivered a solid assist, he began pounding his chest and flexing his muscles. An NBA fan of any team other than the Celtics would have cringed - why is this little guy celebrating when he has hardly done anything? But as a Celtics fan, you have to love Nate. The 5-9 point guard can step on the floor and immediately provide a spark off of the bench, particularly at a time when the offense is stagnant. Even when he is not on the floor, he is active on the sidelines, cheering his teammates on. A player that can single handedly shift momentum back to his team is a valuable player, albeit one incredibly frustrating to watch if he is on the opposing team.

Monday, July 19, 2010

Series Kick-Off: Bruce Bowen's "Dirty Play"

Since the NBA off-season has slowed down a bit, I decided to kick-off a series of posts and hopefully a discussion about players that you despise unless they are on your team. These are players that somehow irritate you when you watch them play, but the minute you hear that your favorite team might acquire them, you become excited. This series starts off with Bruce Bowen.

Someone unfamiliar with Bowen might ask: how could a guy that averaged about 6 points, 1 assist, 3 boards and 1 steal per game throughout his career get under your skin? A player like this should be forgettable – simply a role player. But Bruce Bowen, part of the NBA All-Defensive Team for eight straight seasons, was far more than that – he brought the intangibles to the game and his impact can not be measured solely by his statistics.

Bowen knew what he could get away with on the defensive end without drawing the attention of the officials. He inconspicuously tugged on jerseys, fought through screens and successfully reduced the productivity of the player he was defending. Bowen was often referred to as a “dirty player” but it never changed his style of play. He was able to both physically and mentally break down the player he was defending. Because he was generally wearing down the best offensive player on the opposing team– the player that you were rooting for, you ended up hating Bowen with a passion. When one refers to the championship years of the Spurs, it is unlikely that Bowen’s name would come up, but in fact Bowen’s grit and tactical defense was critical to the Spurs success. Bowen was a defensive pest, a pest that you would have gladly welcomed on your team.

Sunday, July 11, 2010

Requirements for Players Filling the Heat Roster: Low Salary and No Ego


Who will Pat Riley sign to complement his new trio of LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh? He needs to add at least 5 players in order to have the minimum 13 players required for a complete roster. The Heat still need a starting center as well as some shooters that can knock down open jumpers as they will be left wide open when James, Wade or Bosh draw the double team.


One factor Riley must also consider is players with no ego – players that do not need to have the ball in their possession to play hard and players that do not need any recognition. Every interview that any Miami Heat other than James, Wade and Bosh will be granted will be something along the lines of, “How does it feel to play with this magnificent trio?” Even skilled point guard Rajon Rondo had to deal with these questions playing alongside the Celtics “Big 3.”


Here are some potential players that could fit the part for the Heat:


Big Bodies:

Udonis Haslem – He has already played with the Heat and will not need to relearn the system. Haslem does not demand the ball, but is a big body inside that can finish around the rim and would complement the slender Bosh.


Zydrunas Ilgauskas – He and LeBron play well together and he could help the team inside.


Shooters:

Mike Miller – Great shooter that can open up the floor for the trio to operate, but he may demand more money than the Heat can offer.


Roger Mason – Skilled 3-point shooter that would sign for less money than Mike Miller and can also draw defenders outside of the key.


Point Guards:

Derek Fisher – Savvy veteran that does not put up big numbers, but makes big shots. He has 5 rings with the Lakers and has contributed immensely to each championship. It will be hard for Riley to lure Fisher away from Kobe and the Lakers.


Luke Ridnour – Might be willing to take less money to play with the Heat trio. He averaged over 10 points and 4 assists per game last season and would be a good back-up point guard for the Heat.

Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Top Low Budget Free Agents


Everyone is focused on where LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh will land this summer. While a championship team needs superstar players, every team that has won a championship has had role players that have stepped up (think Steve Kerr for the Bulls and Robert Horry and Derek Fisher for the Lakers). Who are the low budget free agents this year that could make an impact next season?


J.J. Redick – was arguably the most consistent player in the Magic-Celtic series. He is a sharp shooter and has a high basketball IQ.


Raja Bell - tremendous defensively and can relieve the star player on his team on the defensive end.


Roger Mason - had a great 2008-2009 season with the Spurs. He is a sharp shooter and can spread the floor, allowing his teammates to operate more freely inside.


Amir Johnson - does the dirty work for his team (played behind Chris Bosh on the Raptors) and is one of the best pick-and-roll players in the NBA. A solid screen is undervalued in the NBA – it opens up easy scoring opportunities – wide open jumpers or a clear lane to the basket.


Nate Robinson - provided a huge spark off the bench for the Celtics in the NBA Finals with his confidence and energy. He also has the ability to score.

Friday, June 25, 2010

Impact of Dalembert


The Sacramento Kings were undoubtedly one of the biggest winners in the 2010 NBA draft, adding 6-11 DeMarcus Cousins with the 5th pick and 7-0 Hassan Whiteside with the 33rd pick. Cousins is a skilled big man, with great footwork and a 7-6 wingspan. He is also a winner – he comes from a successful and well coached Kentucky program where he played with the 1st pick in the draft, John Wall. Whiteside has a 7-7 wingspan, had an 18 percent block rate - one in almost every five possessions, and has been compared to Marcus Camby. The Kings added size and are putting together the pieces to build around Rookie of the Year, Tyreke Evans. But one move the Kings made that should be getting more attention is the trade for Samuel Dalembert.


While Dalembert did not post huge numbers in the 2009-2010 season with 8.1 ppg and 9.6 rpg, he brings a defensive presence and seven years of experience to a young Kings team (average age is 25) that allowed its opponents to score over 104 points per game (6th worst defensive team). The negatives that GMs have seen with Cousins are that he can be lazy on the defensive end and he lacks conditioning, while with Whiteside, the concern is lack of experience and maturity. These are all areas that Dalembert can serve as a great example for Cousins and Whiteside, pushing them to work hard and teaching them the ropes of the NBA.


The Kings have positioned themselves to be similar to the Oklahoma City Thunder of two years ago – a young team with all the right pieces. If they stay together, they have the potential to be a disruptive team in the Western Conference in the coming years.

Thursday, June 17, 2010

Lakers Grind It Out In Game 7


Phil Jackson said it after the game: “The game was won by Ron’s effort.” Ron Artest was the MVP of game 7 of the NBA Finals - he carried the offense, played physical defense, and brought energy to the team. But two guys that quietly got it done were Lamar Odom and Derek Fisher.

Odom only had 7 points and 7 boards, but he was instrumental in keeping the Lakers in the game. When Odom stepped on the floor in the third quarter, the Celtics were up 49-37. After that point, seven field goals were made in the quarter – Odom created two of those shots by dishing out two assists, and made three shots, two of which were made after he grabbed offensive rebounds. By the end of the quarter, the Lakers were only down four, putting them in a position to take the lead in the fourth. The Lakers were +13 with Odom in the game – the largest point differential of his teammates.

Then Fisher made the play that was the turning point of the game – a three point shot that tied the game at 64. While it was only three points in the box score, it made the crowd erupt and brought confidence to the team. After that point, the Lakers took their first lead since the first quarter of the game and they never looked back.

Congratulations to the Lakers for winning a hard fought battle in a grind it out game 7. Kobe Bryant said this championship was the sweetest of his five because it was the hardest one – a huge testament to the toughness of the Celtics. If Jackson stays with the Lakers next season, he has the chance to complete his fourth set of back-to-back-to-back championships, an astonishing feat.

Sunday, June 13, 2010

Bryant Working Too Hard on Offense


Ray Allen did not have his typical performance in game 5 of the NBA Finals, shooting 0-4 from three point range and scoring 12 points, but he was tremendous on the defensive end. While one might look at the box score and conclude that Allen’s defense did nothing to stop Kobe Bryant’s rhythm as he ended with 38 points and a 19 point explosion in the third quarter, the important thing to note is that Bryant had to work hard for each point. Allen forced Bryant to dribble all over the floor to create his own shot and run around screens to get open. He made Bryant expend a lot of energy on the offensive end which led to two problems for the Lakers. First, Bryant was frustrated and tired in the fourth quarter and scored no field goals in the last 7:58 of the game. Second, Bryant wanted to guard Paul Pierce as he was dominating all of the other Laker defenders that attempted to stop him. However, because Allen made Bryant work so hard on the offensive end, Bryant needed to conserve energy on the defensive end – as a result Pierce was guarded by a worse defender. It is clear that Bryant can't do all of the heavy lifting on both the offensive and defensive end. Someone else will need to step up if the Lakers hope to push the series to game 7.

Sunday, June 6, 2010

Pierce Doing the Little Things


While the headlines for game 2 of the Celtics – Lakers series will undoubtedly be about Ray Allen’s finals-record eight 3's or Rajon Rondo’s triple-double, one guy that silently got it done was Paul Pierce. Pierce was only 2-11 from the field finishing with 10 points, but he contributed by doing the little things.

When Kobe Bryant was asked to guard Allen in the 2nd quarter in attempt to slow him down, Pierce set a screen on Bryant that gave Allen the split second he needed to release another three. Good screens allow shooters to separate from their defenders to get off a shot, but the screen that sets up the play is not tracked in the box score. Pierce was also effective on the defensive end although that is not obvious by his one block and one steal. If you look at Ron Artest’s contribution to the game, it is clear that Pierce successfully shut him down. Artest was 1-10 from the field with only 6 points - he also fouled out of the game (Pierce drew 4 fouls on Artest). At the end of the game when it was clear that the Celtics would tie the series, Pau Gasol had an open dunk. Instead of allowing Gasol to make the shot, Pierce fouled him, preventing Gasol from establishing a rhythm. Pierce sees the big picture - he knows this series will be a long hard fought battle and does not want the Lakers to have any momentum going into game 3 when the Celtics look to take a 2-1 lead.

Thursday, June 3, 2010

Artest's Physical Play


In the 2008 NBA Finals, the Lakers lacked toughness and were outhustled by the Celtics. This time around, the Lakers have a key new piece in the line-up: Ron Artest. We all knew that the Artest - Pierce matchup would be an important factor in the Celtics-Lakers series. Only 30 seconds into game 1 of the NBA Finals, Artest set the tone of the game and sent a message to Pierce – the game would be physical and points would not come easily. In a 13 point victory, the Lakers were +26 with Artest in the game. He brought defensive intensity and his aggressive play led to fast breaks and easy points for his teammates. With 6:26 left in the game, Artest blocked Glen Davis’ shot and kept the ball in play by tipping it to Jordan Farmar. This play led to a fast break where Farmar was credited with both a rebound and an assist, and Pau Gasol with 2 points – the crowd erupted and the Celtics were forced to call a timeout in attempt to stop the momentum. The reason this play happened was because of the aggressive play of Artest, but because the player that puts his teammate in a position to make an easy pass that leads to a dunk does not get credit in the box score, it is hard to measure the value of his presence on the floor. Kobe Bryant recognized the value of Artest - Bryant ran over to hug Artest after the timeout was called by the Celtics - he knows that Artest brings a toughness to the Lakers that the team lacked two years ago. If Artest and the Lakers continue to outwork the Celtics ( Lakers were +16 in second chance points and +11 in rebounding), the Lakers have a good chance of repeating.

Thursday, May 27, 2010

No Steals, but a Huge Defensive Presence


It’s impossible to talk about game 5 of the Suns – Lakers series without mentioning Ron Artest. One second he takes an ill advised three, allowing the Suns to get back into the game, and the next second he puts back Kobe Bryant’s air ball to seal the victory. This moment will be the most memorable part of the game, however one key player to remember for the Lakers is Sasha Vujacic.


By the box score, it appears that Vujacic had no impact on the game as he had no rebounds, steals, blocks or assists. In reality, he prevented Dragic from penetrating the lane, causing him to turn the ball over and take off-balance shots. It also seems like Phil Jackson may not value Vujacic’s play as he only played 10 minutes. What the box score is missing, however, is when he played. Vujacic played over six minutes in a close fourth quarter of a pivotal game 5. He played solid defense and hit a big three when the Laker lead was cut to six at 83-77. After game 4 it was clear that the bench would be a crucial aspect of this series, and tonight in game 5, Vujacic was the player that stepped up and helped put the Lakers in a position to close out the series in game 6.

Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Momentum

The Phoenix Sun bench was unstoppable in game 4 of the Suns – Lakers series, outscoring the Laker bench 54-20. Each of the Sun bench players had more than a +10 point differential when they were in the game, while each of the starters had a negative point differential, suggesting that the bench was largely responsible for the victory. One key reason for the strong bench play was the reemergence of Channing Frye.

Frye, a guy that went 1-20 in the first three games of the series and that missed his last 17 field goal attempts, was the player that flipped the switch in game 4, sparking a flurry of threes by his teammates. Frye hit his first three with 7 minutes to go in the second quarter – the crowd erupted, and his teammates were fired up to have him back. He was the missing piece for the Suns during the series and by hitting a shot, he brought himself and his team confidence, leading to 5 straight three point shots - Dudley (1), Barbosa (1), Nash (1), Frye (2). The same trend happened again at the 8 minute mark of the fourth quarter – Frye hit a three which sparked two more threes by Barbosa and Dudley. These shots extended the lead to 9 points and the Lakers were unable to respond. Frye’s 4 threes do look impressive in the box score, but what he brought to the game was far more than points – he shifted the momentum of the game and lifted his teammates, helping even the series at 2 games apiece. It is now a best of 3 game series and the bench play will be critical in determining which team will advance to the finals.

Saturday, May 22, 2010

Magic Outhustled


If you decided to tune out of the Boston Celtic - Orlando Magic series, all you need to see is this clip.

The Celtics were up 17 at this point, yet Rajon Rondo of the Boston Celtics is the one diving to the ground for the ball sacrificing his body, not Jason Williams in a must win game for the Magic. This play sums up game three and the series overall. It is about the desire to win and how a team reacts when the opposition makes a run. Instead of fighting back when the Celtics took a lead, the Magic were outhustled and outplayed. They had three offensive rebounds as a team displaying a complete lack of effort. Yes, the Boston Celtic defense is largely responsible for shutting the Magic down, but not to the extent that it happened – a 23 point blowout victory with the Magic down 0-2 in the series. Hopefully the Magic at least go out trying in game 4, but one thing is clear – they should start making summer vacation plans.

Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Experience of the Boston Celtics


The experience of the Boston Celtics showed in game 2 against the Orlando Magic as the Celtics were able to stay poised down the stretch. In the final minutes of the game, Kevin Garnett and Rajon Rondo hit clutch shots and remained cool under pressure. With 34 seconds left in the game and the Celtics up by 1, Paul Pierce was fouled and calmly hit both free throws, whereas Vince Carter, who was fouled on the next play of the game, missed both key free throws, leaving the Magic down by 3. Garnett then missed a 20 foot jumper, J.J. Redick got possession of the ball, and the Magic had a chance to tie the game. Here is where a big mistake came into play: instead of calling a timeout immediately after Garnett's missed shot and having over 7 seconds to craft a play on the sideline, Redick took several dribbles and then called for a timeout. This left the Magic with only 3.5 seconds for the last shot of the game - a 60 foot jumper that missed the mark. Making smart basketball decisions and remaining calm under pressure is what experience brings to a team - something that the Magic lack. The Celtics experience has helped them secure a 2-0 lead with a chance to close out the series at home.

Sunday, May 16, 2010

Position in the Paint


The Boston Celtics locked down the Orlando Magic on the defensive end in game 1 of the eastern conference finals, allowing the Magic to score only 88 points, a team that averaged 101 points in the first two rounds of playoffs. One major factor in the game was the inability of Dwight Howard to establish position in the paint. Kendrick Perkins, Glen Davis and Rasheed Wallace each successfully prevented Howard from catching the ball close to the basket, creating a lower percentage shot for Howard. When Howard was able to establish good position, he was fouled, forcing him to earn his points from the free throw line where he generally struggles. A hard or soft foul shows up as just one foul in the box score, but there is a big difference between the two. The fouls that the Celtics committed on Howard were hard fouls – fouls that send a message - no points will come easily in this series.

Howard shot 3-10 from the field and 7-12 from the line. Of the three shots that he made, only one was directly under the basket - a tip off of Jameer Nelson's missed shot with 26 seconds left in the game. The other two shots he made were 4 ft and 7 ft jumpers. He was not able to dunk the ball or get easy layups like he was in the first two rounds. If the Magic want to have a chance in this series, Howard will have to establish his position in the paint before he catches the ball in order to shoot a higher percentage shot - otherwise he will be forced to earn each point at the line.

Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Rondo Sets the Pace for Game 5


Rajon Rondo of the Boston Celtics came up empty in the box score (by Rondo standards) in the first half of game five against the Cleveland Cavaliers with 0 points, 3 assists and 1 rebound. However, Rondo set the pace and tone of the game by pushing the ball, driving to the basket, and getting his teammates involved. Rondo’s ability to draw multiple defenders when he attacks the rim benefits his teammates even when he misses a shot. In the second quarter, Rondo drove to the basket and four Cavalier defenders collapsed on him, preventing them from boxing out and obtaining the rebound. Instead, Glen Davis of the Celtics was able to secure the offensive board, get fouled, and shoot two free throws. Glen Davis received credit for a rebound and a point at the free throw line - Rondo was credited with a missed field goal, yet Rondo’s drive to the basket is what created the opportunity for Davis. Even though Rondo did not have a triple double like he did in game 4, and appeared to have limited impact on the game based on his stats, his presence on the court in game 5 was immeasurable.

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Gasol Draws Five Fouls on Boozer, Commits Zero


No one on the Utah Jazz could stop Pau Gasol of the Los Angeles Lakers in game 4 of the western conference semi-finals. He had 33 points on only 18 field goal attempts, along with 14 rebounds. Taking a deep dive into the fouls that Gasol drew compared to the fouls that he committed in order to measure the effectiveness of his aggressive play, it is clear that Gasol impacted the game in many ways not displayed in the box score. Gasol kept Carlos Boozer out of the flow of the game by drawing 5 fouls, including Boozer's 6th foul to remove him from the game. Boozer, who has averaged over 17 points per game in the series, ended up with 10 points (no points in the fourth quarter) and only 5 fourth quarter minutes as he was plagued by fouls. For the game, Gasol drew 8 fouls, took 11 free throws (made 9), had 7 offensive rebounds, and blocked two shots – meanwhile, he committed 0 fouls in 40 minutes of play in a physical elimination game. His energetic play contributed to the Lakers +11 advantage at the free throw line, kept Boozer out of sync, and helped lead the Lakers to the western conference finals which begin on Monday, May 17th against the Phoenix Suns.

Saturday, May 8, 2010

Dragic Unstoppable in the Fourth


Goran Dragic of the Phoenix Suns, a player drafted 45th in the 2008 NBA draft by the San Antonio Spurs, made the Spurs think twice about giving him up. Dragic was unstoppable in game three between the Suns and Spurs, scoring 26 points off the bench, and going 5-5 from three point range. While his numbers were impressive, it was the timing of his play that was significant. Dragic scored all of his points in the final 14 minutes of the game (23 of 26 in the fourth quarter) and he gave the Suns their first lead at 73-72. Because of Dragic’s fourth quarter explosion, the Suns big three, Stoudemire, Richardson, and Nash, only played 98 minutes combined compared to an average of over 110 minutes in the first two games of the series (Stoudemire and Richardson watched the entire fourth quarter from the bench and Nash played the final 3 minutes of the quarter). Alvin Gentry’s decision to go with the hot hand over playing his regular fourth quarter unit payed off as the Suns not only won the game, but also the starters reduced their minutes – rest is key in the playoffs as they are a long, hard fought battle.

It will be interesting to see if Jerry Sloan, head coach of the Utah Jazz, follows Gentry’s lead in game three between the Jazz and Lakers. In the first two games of the series, Ronnie Price led a fourth quarter comeback, but Sloan decided to replace Price with starting point guard Deron Williams to close out the game. The Jazz came up short in both games which begs the question - should Sloan have stuck with Ronnie Price? We will see what he decides to do in game 3 tonight between the Jazz and Lakers. It seems like going with the hot hand might be the way to go.

Wednesday, May 5, 2010

Dudley's Aggressive Play


Jared Dudley left an imprint all over game two between the Phoenix Suns and San Antonio Spurs. He grabbed four offensive rebounds (the same amount as 6-10 Amar’e Stoudemire) and hit a key three pointer in the fourth when the game was tied at 80. But what Dudley brought most to the game was his intensity. The Suns struggled early and Dudley's aggressive play brought the team a boost off of the bench. In the second quarter alone, Dudley drew fouls on 4 Spurs: Richard Jefferson, Manu Ginobili, Matt Bonner and DeJuan Blair, contributing to the Suns 14 point advantage at the free throw line. With 3:47 left in the third, Dudley drew Tim Duncan’s third foul which was key as only a minute and a half later, Duncan picked up his fourth foul and was taken out of the game. The Suns then went on a 6-0 run. For the game, Dudley drew 8 fouls and despite his intensity on both the offensive and defensive end, he only committed 2 fouls. His energy off of the bench was crucial to the Suns victory. Proposed new stat: number of fouls drawn by a player. Then you can go a step further and look at the ratio of fouls drawn to fouls committed - an efficiency metric similar to the assist to turnover ratio, but used to measure the effectiveness of a player's intensity. Thoughts?

Monday, May 3, 2010

Centers that can Shoot the Three


It’s hard to call out just one great performance in game two between the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers as everything was pretty much going right for the Celtics. However, there was one player that changed the composition of the game and that player was Rasheed Wallace. If Wallace plays the 5 spot, he is matched up against Anderson Varejao or Shaquille O’Neal – both centers that like to play in the paint. While Wallace can post up and pound the ball inside, he is also a great three point shooter. Due to his shooting ability, he often plays on the perimeter, dragging his defender from the key and opening up the floor. If the Cavs centers come out to guard Wallace on the three point line, the entire paint is left open for Rajon Rondo to easily penetrate to the basket. However, if O’Neal or Varejao do not come out to guard Wallace, he ends up being guarded by the Cavaliers backcourt, leaving the 6-11 center with a smaller defender and therefore a higher percentage shot. Another player with this type of impact on the game is Channing Frye of the Phoenix Suns - Frye is also a 6-11 center with the ability to shoot the three. Just by Frye standing on the perimeter and bringing out his defender, Steve Nash has more room to operate and create shots for his teammates. It would be interesting to track the difference in points scored in the paint by guards when they are playing with a center that is able to shoot the three, versus when they play with a traditional post up center - the shot blockers are removed from the paint thereby opening up the lane for the guards. Spreading the floor does not show up in the box score, but it is incredibly valuable to a team.

Sunday, May 2, 2010

The Value of a Head Coach


The Denver Nuggets were expected to advance to the second round of playoffs. They had home court advantage and were facing a depleted Utah Jazz squad missing two starters in Mehmet Okur and Andrei Kirilenko. Jerry Sloan, head coach of the Jazz, replaced his injured starters with Kyrylo Fesenko and C.J. Miles who averaged 8.3 and 23.8 minutes per game respectively during the regular season. While the Nuggets had their starting line-up intact, they were missing one key piece: head coach George Karl.


Karl was replaced by Adrian Dantley due to Karl’s battle with neck and throat cancer. Karl was 42-21 (.667 winning percentage), while Dantley was 11-8 (.579). This isn't to say that Dantley did not do a good job given the situation he was thrown into, but it makes one think about the value of a head coach. In his career, Karl has over 900 regular season wins and over 70 post season wins. He has been the head coach of the Nuggets since the 2004-2005 season, leading the team to the playoffs in each season. Needless to say, Karl has a lot of experience under his belt and was able to create a cohesive unit for a team that is often emotional and volatile. Playoffs is all about making adjustments, exploiting matchups, and getting the best out of personnel - a job that requires experience. Removing a team staple like George Karl toward the end of the season was detrimental to the success of the Nuggets.

Friday, April 30, 2010

It's all about the team for Grant Hill


The Phoenix Suns defeated the Portland Trail Blazers last night and Grant Hill was arguably the best player on the court. But, if you missed the game and looked at his stats, that wouldn’t be so clear. Hill had 3 points, shooting 1-4 from the field, yet the team was +26 when he was on the court (the highest point differential out of all of his teammates). Hill had such a huge impact on the game because of his unselfish play, defensive intensity, and ability to make smart decisions. Right before halftime, the Blazers were trying to cut the Suns lead to a manageable ten point game. Jerryd Bayless drove to the basket and went up for a dunk that would have made the crowd erupt, but Hill was there to get a clean block (see YouTube video). Although this block did show up in the box score, the timing of the block is what mattered - Hill quieted the crowd and prevented the Blazers from gaining momentum going into the half. In addition, in the final few minutes of the game when the Suns were trying to pull away, Hill set a screen for Steve Nash that led to an easy dunk for Amar’e Stoudemire. For this play, Nash was credited with an assist, Stoudemire with 2 points, and Hill with nothing, yet the play originated with Hill’s screen. Because there is currently no measurement for the timing of a play or for a screen that leads to an easy bucket, the box score can be misleading when assessing the value of a player. After the game, Hill was interviewed by the always creatively dressed Craig Sager and said: “I’m done worrying about my legacy.” Hill is committed to his team and is not concerned with his personal stats – his unselfish play is what helped seal the victory for the Suns and move Hill into the second round of playoffs for the first time in his career.

Thursday, April 29, 2010

Wesley Matthews

Undrafted in the 2009 NBA Draft, Wesley Matthews is now starting shooting guard of the Utah Jazz, playing alongside Deron Williams. There were several drafted guards in 2009 that most people have probably not heard of such as Sergiy Gladyr (49th pick) and Robert Vaden (54th pick). These players played zero minutes this season. How could 30 teams have passed up Matthews?


Matthews has a high basketball IQ, sets hard back screens, dives for loose balls and looks to create easy buckets for his teammates. This is a guy who does the little things to make his teammates better. It’s pretty incredible that an undrafted player is now starting for a western conference playoff team one game away from defeating the Denver Nuggets, and is averaging 37 minutes in the first five games of the series. While we didn't hear his name called in the draft, Wesley Matthews is a name that we will likely become familiar with over the next few years.

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Shane Battier


If you haven't read Michael Lewis' brilliant piece The No-Stats All-Star, you should check it out. Lewis discusses Battier's "invisible strengths" that improve the performance of his teammates while weakening the performance of the opposition. A player's value is not solely in the box score - he can impact the game by causing turnovers, spurring team rebounds, blocking shots while keeping the ball in play, or causing the defense to spread the floor.

Daryl Morey, the Rockets GM, has rethought the game of basketball, using data to understand a player's value outside of the obvious statistics such as points, rebounds, assists, and steals. Rockets forward Shane Battier is a prime example of a player that is never mentioned in the all-star crowd, but has had a tremendous impact on the game. As of the 2009 season, Battier was plus 6 on the court which put him in the company of Vince Carter and Carmelo Anthony. GM's should follow Morey's philosophy when compiling a roster because the value of a team that is strategically put together is far larger than sum of its individual parts.